This is some seriously crazy footage of Category 5 Hurricane Michael, which hit the Florida panhandle on October 10, 2018. My question is, if you lived in this area when the hurricane was coming, would you want to know about it ahead of time?
It sounds like a ridiculous question. If a huge hurricane was heading towards your house, your town, would you want to be warned about it? Or would you rather have the weatherperson say, "It's another lovely day, we might see a bit of rain and some wind this afternoon?" You feel secure, and then a Cat 5 hurricane rolls in and levels your house. Nearly everyone is going to say, "I want to hear about the hurricane before it gets to my house." That's common sense. Hurricanes can be so incredibly destructive, that an elaborate tracking system has been put in place to see them as they form, track them, and warn people where they are most likely to make landfall, so everyday people have a warning, a chance to take whatever action is needed.
If the storm is big enough, and it's coming close enough to where you live, a warning system gives you time to board up the windows, and either evacuate the area, or shelter in place somewhere that's safe and storm proof. A warning system for a catastrophic storm that will affect thousands of people is a no-brainer. Yes, people want to know about dangerous weather before it gets to them. Then they can decide whether to board up, put sand bags around the house, go somewhere else during the storm, or stock up on food and water and hunker down.
But for some reason, economic "storms," that affect tens of millions of people, are a different story. Most people seem to not want to hear that there's a recession coming, or a depression. Most people seem to want the "weatherman," meaning economists and financial forecasters, to tell them, "Oh, we're just in for a light shower and a little wind," and then get blindsided by what really happens. I know I'm a geek, and I think in longer times spans than most people. But it baffles me that most people don't seem to want to hear a major economic crisis is coming before it happens.
In today's hyper-connected, media saturated world, this seems to have gotten even worse. I recently heard stock market media guy saying that Millennials, in particular, don't want to even hear negative reports on financial matters. When a legit online analyst warned that a stock was getting bit too high priced recently, and could be due for a correction, he said so. Many of his followers got upset, "Why are you being so negative?" they asked. He wasn't being negative, he was being responsible, and accurate, using his judgement and years of experience. He was warning them things were getting too hot, and a correction could be coming.The influencer knew his followers could lose a big sum of money if the stock corrected, and the price went down dramatically. He said he lost quite a few viewers of his YouTube channel, who seemed to go find another person who had a "positive" outlook on that stock. A couple days later, the stock did go down, and many people lost a serious amount of money.
This blog, and this whole idea, The Big Freakin' Transition, are my analysis of a major financial storm" I saw brewing, back in 2017-2018, and which first hit last year. I see this blog as a continuing "financial weather forecast" of sorts, my thoughts on rough times ahead. Yes, an economic recession or depression is a negative event, and lots of people lose lots of money, and often jobs, real estate, even vehicles and other personal property.
But having a heads up before it happens, gives people time to see if they need to take action. They may want to sell one investment, and buy others. They may want to refinance a home, or sell that car that's really too expensive for their budget. They may simply want to stock up on some extra food, toilet paper, and household items, in case there are supply shortages at some point. Simply put, a heads up gives people time to react in some way to a potentially threatening event.
We have recessions every 4-7 years, on average, in the U.S.. But for some reason, people always seem to believe that the last recession was the last one ever. "Those people in Washington D.C. have things figured out now, and there will never, ever, be another recession or depression," we hear the talking heads say. When people in the business media are saying, "That will never happen again," is usually right before it happens again.
Like I said in the first post, I've been an amateur futurist for most of my life, fascinated by trying to figure out where things in our world will head in the future. In early adulthood, as I started reading business books, I got interested in economic trends, and social trends that affect economic trends. That has continued to this day. My basic thoughts are, if something bad it heading my way, like a potential recession or depression, I'd rather accept it's there, analyze it in the ways possible, and figure out how big of a threat, if any, it is likely to be. Then I have some good information to decide what action makes the most sense. We can't always do that, but we can a lot of the time.
So that's the thinking behind this blog. Yes, there are industries that don't want you to understand the financial world, and don't want you to think ahead. But those industries, and the people in them, aren't going to pay you back the money you lose in a major downturn. Also, major "negative" events, like recessions and depressions, also offer many of the biggest business, financial, and investing opportunities.
So this is the basic idea of this blog. I've followed some ultra long term trends for years, and some long term trends, and several are reaching big inflection points in the 2020's. That tells me that we will probably see a lot of trouble, a lot of change, and a lot of opportunity, in the 2020's. So this is my long term "financial weather forecast" on the potential issues, good and bad, that I see heading our way. If you have an ultra short term, gambler or day trader mentality, this isn't for you. But if you are drawn to the longer term financial thinkers, like investors Warren Buffet and Charlie Munger, or Ray Dalio, or Robert Kiyosaki, then you might find something worthwhile in this blog. Much more to come. thanks for reading.
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